A futures contract (sometimes simply called futures) is a standardised legal agreement that allows you to buy or sell something at a predetermined price on a specific date in the future, even though you don’t know the other party involved yet. With the rise for futures trading, we wrote this piece to take you through everything you need to know about futures contracts, from how they work to how they’re regulated, and all the terminology that’s used along the way. In essence, you agree on a price today (known as the forward or delivery price) to buy or sell an asset (which is generally a commodity or financial instrument) on a specific date in the future (called the delivery date). As it derives its value from the value of the underlying asset, a futures contract is a derivative.
Futures contracts are traded on marketplaces called futures exchanges. The buyer of the contract is known as the long position holder while the seller is the short position holder. To ensure both sides fulfill their obligations, a small deposit (called the margin) is typically required by both buyer and seller. This helps mitigate the risk of someone backing out if the price goes against them. For instance, in gold futures trading, the margin ranges from 2% to 20%, changing according to the volatility of the spot market.
A stock future is a contract that reflects the value of an entire stock market index, settled with cash. They’re very high-risk contracts and are often used as an indicator of market sentiment.
The first futures contracts were negotiated for agricultural commodities, with later futures contracts negotiated for natural resources such as oil. 1972 saw the introduction of financial futures, and in the last few decades currency futures, interest rate futures, and stock market index futures have become increasingly prevalent. There have even been proposals for using futures contracts in the organ transplant market, aiming to incentivise and increase organ availability…
Traditionally, futures contracts were used to mitigate the risk of price and exchange rate fluctuations by enabling parties to fix the price of a future transaction in advance. For instance, a company expecting a future payment in a foreign currency could use a futures contract to lock in a favourable exchange rate, mitigating potential losses due to adverse currency movements before receiving the payment.
Beyond risk mitigation, futures contracts present opportunities for market participants to speculate on future price movements. This speculation involves entering into contracts to buy or sell assets at a predetermined price on a future date. If the prediction proves accurate, the trader makes a profit.
This has another advantage beyond the profit for the trader, as it suggests the underlying commodity they traded was preserved during periods of excess and sold during times of scarcity. This results in a more advantageous distribution of the commodity for consumers over time.
Risk mitigation
Although futures contracts specify a future delivery date, their primary function is to minimise the risk of either party reneging on the agreement before that date. To achieve this, the futures exchange compels both parties to deposit an initial sum of money, or a performance bond, called the margin.
The margin amount, sometimes expressed as a percentage of the contract’s value, must be upheld throughout the contract’s life to guarantee its fulfillment. This is crucial because the contract’s price fluctuates based on supply and demand, potentially causing one party to incur losses at the other’s benefit.
To further mitigate the risk of default, a “mark to market” process is used, which entails recalculating the difference between the originally agreed-upon price and the current daily futures price on a daily basis.
This process is sometimes referred to as “variation margin”, where the futures exchange transfers funds from the losing party’s margin account to the winning party’s account, ensuring that daily gains or losses are accurately reflected. If a margin account falls below a specific threshold established by the exchange, a “margin call” is issued, requiring the account holder to replenish the funds.
On the delivery date, the exchange of funds occurs at the spot price, not the price specified in the contract, as any profits or losses have already been settled through the daily mark to market process.
Margin
To minimise counterparty risk, trades executed on regulated futures exchanges are guaranteed by a clearing house. The clearing house effectively steps in as both the buyer to every seller and the seller to every buyer. This means that if a counterparty defaults, the clearing house absorbs the potential loss. This allows traders to conduct transactions without needing to do extensive due diligence on the other party involved.
Margin requirements can be waived or lowered in certain circumstances. This applies to hedgers who physically own the underlying commodity or spread traders who hold offsetting contracts that create a balanced position.
- Clearing Margin: These are financial safeguards implemented to ensure companies fulfil their obligations on open futures and options contracts for their clients. They differ from customer margins, which individual buyers and sellers must deposit with their brokers.
- Customer Margin: Within the futures industry, customer margins are financial guarantees required from both buyers and sellers of futures contracts, and sellers of options contracts. These ensure that all parties fulfil their contractual obligations. Futures Commission Merchants are responsible for overseeing customer margin accounts. The amount of margin required is determined by market risk and the value of the contract. Customer margins are also sometimes known as performance bond margins.
- Initial Margin: This is the initial capital required to establish a futures position. It essentially acts as a type of performance bond. While the maximum potential loss isn’t limited to the initial margin amount, the requirement is calculated based on the highest estimated change in contract value within a single trading day. The initial margin is set by the exchange itself.
For exchange-traded products, the initial margin amount or percentage is determined by the relevant exchange.
If a loss occurs, or if the initial margin value starts to dwindle, the broker will issue a margin call to restore the available initial margin. This call, often referred to as “variation margin,” typically happens daily. However, during periods of high volatility, a broker may issue an intra-day margin call.
Margin calls are generally expected to be settled on the same day. If not, the broker has the right to close enough positions to cover the margin call amount. Following the position closure, the client remains liable for any resulting account deficit.
Some US exchanges also use the term “maintenance margin,” which essentially defines the threshold for the initial margin value before a margin call is triggered. However, most brokers outside the US only use “initial margin” and “variation margin” terminology.
Unlike other securities’ initial margin (set by the Federal Reserve in US markets), the initial margin requirement for futures is established by the futures exchange itself.
A futures account undergoes daily mark to market evaluation. If the margin falls below the maintenance margin requirement set by the exchange listing the futures contract, a margin call will be issued to bring the account back to the required level.
Maintenance Margin
This refers to the minimum amount of margin a customer must hold in their account for each outstanding futures contract.
- Margin-Equity Ratio: A term used by speculators, this ratio represents the portion of their trading capital currently tied up as margin. The low margin requirements for futures contracts allow for significant leverage in an investment. However, exchanges mandate a minimum margin amount that varies depending on the contract and the trader. While a broker can potentially set a higher requirement, they cannot lower it. Of course, a trader can choose to maintain a higher margin level than required to avoid margin calls.
- Performance Bond Margin: This is the initial deposit made by both a buyer and seller of a futures contract, or by a seller of options contracts, to guarantee they will fulfil their contractual obligations over the entire term. It’s important to remember that margin in commodities isn’t a down payment or equity payment on the underlying commodity itself, but rather a security deposit.
- Return on Margin (ROM): Often used as a performance metric, ROM compares the gain or loss achieved to the exchange’s perceived risk, as reflected in the required margin. The calculation for ROM is (realised return) / (initial margin). Annualised ROM can be calculated as (ROM+1)(year/trade_duration)-1. For instance, if a trader earns a 10% return on margin over two months, this would translate to an annualised return of approximately 77%.
Margining
Futures contracts are constantly adjusted to reflect the current spot price of a forward contract with the same delivery date and underlying asset (based on mark to market).
Forwards lack a standardised approach. Typically, parties agree to adjustments, like true-ups, on a less frequent basis, such as quarterly.
Since forwards aren’t margined daily, price movements in the underlying asset can create a significant difference between the forward’s delivery price and the settlement price. This can lead to the accumulation of unrealised gains – or losses.
Futures contracts are “trued-up” daily by comparing their market value to the collateral used to secure the contract. This ensures compliance with brokerage margin requirements. This “true-up” process involves the party experiencing a loss providing additional collateral. For example, if the buyer experiences a price drop, they would typically need to deposit more cash into their brokerage account to cover the shortfall or “variation margin”.
Forwards, unlike futures, don’t experience regular “true-ups” for exchange rate fluctuations. Instead, these fluctuations accumulate as unrealised gains or losses depending on the side of the trade in question. This means the entire amount of unrealised gains or losses is realised when the contract is delivered (or more commonly, closed before expiration) at the underlying currency’s spot price. As a result, forwards have a higher credit risk than futures, and their funding is handled differently. The primary risk with forwards is the potential inability of the supplier to deliver the underlying asset or the buyer’s inability to pay for it at the settlement date (or when the opening party closes the contract).
Futures contracts mitigate much of this credit risk by mandating daily updates to reflect the price of an equivalent forward purchased that day. This ensures minimal additional funds are typically required on the final settlement day for a futures contract – only the gain or loss from that specific day, not the accumulated gain or loss over the entire contract life.
Furthermore, the daily risk of settlement failure in futures contracts is borne by the exchange, not by individual parties, further minimising credit risk compared to forwards.
Settlement
The process of finalising a futures contract, known as settlement, can occur in two ways, depending on the specific contract type:
Physical Delivery: The seller delivers the specified quantity of the underlying asset to the exchange, which then distributes it to the contract’s buyers. Physical delivery is commonly used for commodities and bonds. However, in practice, it only occurs for a minority of contracts. Most are offset before expiry through a “covering position.” This involves buying a contract to cancel a previous sale (covering a short position) or selling a contract to liquidate an earlier purchase (covering a long position). The majority of energy contracts traded on the NYMEX settle via this method upon expiry.
Some physical traders choose to settle an Exchange for Physical (EFP) arrangement with a counterparty holding the opposite position, and some Treasuries contracts on the CBOT also settle using physical delivery.
Cash settlement: This method involves a cash payment determined by the underlying reference rate. This rate could be a short-term interest rate benchmark like the 90-Day Treasury Bill index, or the closing value of a stock market index.
At contract expiry, both parties settle by paying or receiving cash based on the contract’s associated gain or loss. Cash-settled futures contracts are those that, in practice, cannot be settled by physically delivering the underlying asset. For instance, delivering a stock market index is obviously not feasible.
Some futures contracts may also choose to settle against an index derived from trading activity in a related spot market. For example, ICE Brent futures use this settlement method.
Expiry (or Expiration in the US): This refers to the specific date and time when trading for a particular futures contract delivery month ceases. It also signifies the final settlement price for that contract. For many equity index futures, interest rate futures, and most equity (index) options, expiry occurs on the third Friday of designated trading months.
On this day, the back month futures contract transitions to become the new front-month contract. For example, on most CME and CBOT contracts, when the December contract expires, the March contract automatically becomes the nearest-to-expiry contract.
During a brief period (around 30 minutes), the underlying cash price and the futures prices may have difficulty converging. This high liquidity window attracts arbitrageurs who quickly exploit any discrepancies between an index and an underlying asset.
Expiry also sees an increase in trading volume as traders roll over their positions to the next contract, or in the case of equity index futures, some participants may purchase underlying components of the relevant index to hedge their existing index positions.
On the expiry date, a European equity arbitrage trading desk in London or Frankfurt might witness the expiry of positions in as many as eight major markets, occurring every half hour. To mitigate any potential volatility surrounding final settlement, exchanges implement strict limits on an entity’s exposure as expiry approaches.
Pricing
The price of a futures contract is primarily determined through arbitrage mechanisms when the underlying deliverable asset is readily available or can be easily created. Stock index futures, treasury bond futures, and futures on physical commodities in plentiful supply (such as agricultural crops after harvest) typically fall into this category.
However, when the deliverable is scarce or doesn’t yet exist – such as crops before harvest, or in the case of Eurodollar futures or Federal funds rate futures (where the underlying instrument is essentially created upon delivery) – arbitrage becomes ineffective in fixing the futures price.
In these scenarios, the price is solely dictated by one force: the future supply and demand for the asset, reflected in the supply and demand for the futures contract.
Arbitrage Arguments
“Rational pricing” through arbitrage arguments happen when the deliverable asset is readily available or easily created. In such scenarios, the forward price represents the anticipated future value of the underlying asset, discounted at the risk-free interest rate. Any deviation from this theoretical price creates a risk-free profit opportunity for investors and should be arbitraged away.
The forward price is the strike price (denoted by K) that results in a contract with zero value at the present time. Assuming constant interest rates, the forward price of a futures contract aligns with the forward price of a forward contract with the same strike price and maturity date. This also holds true if the underlying asset and interest rates exhibit no correlation. However, when a correlation exists, the difference between the futures forward price and the asset’s forward price becomes proportional to the covariance between the underlying asset price and interest rates.
For instance, a futures contract on a zero-coupon bond will have a lower futures price than the forward price. This price difference is known as the futures “convexity correction.”
Therefore, under the assumption of constant interest rates, the value of a futures/forward price (denoted as F(t,T)) can be determined by compounding the present value (S(t)) at time t to the maturity date (T) by the risk-free rate of return (r), or with continuous compounding.
This relationship can be further refined to account for storage costs (u), dividend or income yields (q), and convenience yields (y). Storage costs represent the expenses involved in holding a commodity until the futures contract matures. Investors selling the asset at the spot price to arbitrage a futures price effectively recoup the storage costs they would have incurred by holding the asset for futures delivery.
Convenience yields represent the benefits of holding an asset for sale at the futures price, exceeding the cash received from the sale itself. These benefits could include the ability to meet unexpected demand or to use the asset as production input. When investors sell at the spot price to exploit arbitrage opportunities, they forgo these advantages, essentially relinquishing the convenience yield.
The convenience yield is inherently difficult to directly observe or measure. Therefore, when storage costs (u) and risk-free interest rates (r) are known, y is often calculated as the extraneous yield effectively paid by investors selling at spot to arbitrage the futures price. Dividend or income yields (q) are more readily observable or estimated and can be incorporated into the equation in a similar manner.
In a perfect market, the relationship between futures and spot prices is only dependent on the variables discussed above. However, in reality markets exhibit various imperfections such as transaction costs, differential borrowing and lending rates and restrictions on short selling which prevent complete arbitrage. As a result, the futures price in practice varies within arbitrage boundaries around the theoretical price.
Pricing via expectation
When the underlying commodity for a futures contract is scarce (or doesn’t yet exist), rational pricing can’t be applied as the arbitrage mechanism becomes ineffective. In such scenarios, the price of the futures contract is dictated by the anticipated future supply and demand for the underlying asset, as reflected in the present futures market.
Within an efficient market, you’d expect supply and demand to reach equilibrium at a futures price that reflects the present value of an unbiased forecast for the underlying asset’s price on the delivery date.
However, this relationship can break down in markets with low liquidity or depth, or if a significant portion of the deliverable asset is deliberately withheld from the market (an illegal practice referred to as “cornering the market”). In such cases, the futures price established through supply and demand may no longer accurately reflect the underlying asset’s expected future price.
Relationship between arbitrage arguments and expectation
The relationship between futures prices and expectations also holds true in scenarios where arbitrage is impossible, provided these are expectations based on risk-neutral probabilities. In simpler terms, a futures price behaves like a “martingale” with respect to risk-neutral probability. Under this pricing principle, a speculator can expect to neither profit nor lose over time when the futures market accurately reflects the value of the underlying commodity.
Contango, backwardation, normal and inverted markets
Contango describes a situation where the price of a futures contract for future delivery is higher than the anticipated spot price. “Normal” markets are characterised by futures prices exceeding the current spot price, with far-dated futures priced higher than near-dated futures.
Backwardation is the opposite of contango, where the price of a futures contract for future delivery is lower than the expected spot price. “Inverted” markets are characterised by futures prices trading below the current spot price, with far-dated futures priced lower than near-dated futures.
Futures contracts and exchanges
Contracts
Futures contracts encompass a wide range of tradable assets, reflecting the versatility of the instrument. These assets can include securities (like single-stock futures), intangibles (including indexes and interest rates), commodities and currencies.
The origins of commodity trading through futures contracts can be traced back to 18th century Japan, where rice and silk were actively traded. Similarly, Holland saw futures-like trading with tulip bulbs during the same period. The mid-19th century saw the beginning of trading in the US, with the establishment of central grain markets to create a marketplace for farmers to sell their crops either for immediate delivery (spot market) or for future delivery through forward contracts. These private agreements between buyers and sellers laid the foundation for today’s exchange-traded futures contracts.
While the initial focus was on traditional commodities like grains, meat, and livestock, exchange-traded futures have progressively expanded to encompass a broader spectrum of assets. This now includes metals, energy products, currency and currency indexes, equity and equity indexes, along with government and private interest rates.
Exchanges vocabulary
The 1970s saw the the introduction of contracts on financial instruments by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). These instruments proved immensely successful, rapidly surpassing commodity futures in terms of both trading volume and global market accessibility.
This pioneering move by the CME spurred the establishment of numerous new futures exchanges around the world, including London International Financial Futures Exchange in 1982 (now Euronext. liffe), Deutsche Terminbörse (now Eurex) and the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM). There are now over 90 futures and futures options exchanges globally, some of which are listed below together with their primary instruments.
- CME Group (CBOT and CME) – interest rate derivatives, currencies, agricultural futures and metals
- NYMEX (CME Group) – energy (such as crude oil and gasoline) and metals (such as gold and aluminium)
- Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME) – Oman Crude, Dubai Platts, and Singapore Fuel Oil
- Intercontinental Exchange (ICE Futures Europe) – energy products like diesel, natural gas, refined petroleum products and electric power
- NYSE Euronext – softs including grains and meat
- Eurex (part of Deutsche Börse, and also operates SOFFEX and EEX)
- South African Futures Exchange SAFEX
- Sydney Futures Exchange
- Tokyo Commodity Exchange TOCOM
- Tokyo Financial Exchange TFX – Euroyen, OverNight CallRate and SpotNext RepoRate Futures
- Osaka Exchange OSE – JGB, TOPIX, Nikkei and RNP Futures
- London Metal Exchange – metals like copper, tin and steel
- Intercontinental Exchange (formerly New York Board of Trade) – softs such as cocoa, cotton, and sugar
- JFX Jakarta Futures Exchange
- Montreal Exchange (MX) – interest rate and cash derivatives
- Korea Exchange (KRX)
- Singapore Exchange (SGX) (merged with Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX))
- Rosario Futures Exchange (ROFEX)
- National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), India
- National Stock Exchange of India
- EverMarkets Exchange (EMX) – global currencies, equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies
- FEX Global Financial and Energy Exchange of Australia
- Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) – agricultural and industrial products
- Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) – metal and foodstuff commodities
- Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) – agricultural products and petrochemicals
- China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) – index futures and currencies
Codes
Most futures contract codes consist of five characters. The first two characters denote the contract type, the third character represents the delivery month, and the final two characters specify the year. For example, “CLX14” is a Crude Oil (CL), November (X) 2014 (14) contract.
Contracts expire after the designated listing month, so traders need to roll over their positions to the next contract month.
- January = F
- February = G
- March = H
- April = J
- May = K
- June = M
- July = N
- August = Q
- September = U
- October = V
- November = X
- December = Z
Futures Contracts Users
Futures traders can be broadly categorised into two main groups: hedgers and speculators.
Hedgers have a vested interest in the underlying asset (which can encompass intangibles like indexes or interest rates). They use futures contracts to mitigate the potential risks associated with price fluctuations in the underlying asset.
In contrast, speculators aim to profit by anticipating market movements. They achieve this by entering into derivative contracts based on the asset, purely for speculative purposes. They have no real need or intention to physically receive or deliver the underlying asset itself. Speculators essentially seek exposure to the asset by taking long positions (buying futures contracts) or the opposite effect by taking short positions (selling futures contracts).
Hedgers
Hedgers in the futures market are generally either the producer or consumer of a commodity, or the owner of an asset subject to particular influences, like an interest rate.
Farmers are prime examples of hedgers. They might sell futures contracts on their crops or livestock to lock in a guaranteed price, simplifying planning and budgeting. Livestock producers may use futures contracts to hedge against feed cost fluctuations, securing a predictable cost for their animals’ feed.
In modern financial markets, “producers” of financial instruments like interest rate swaps or equity derivatives can use financial futures or equity index futures to mitigate or eliminate risk associated with their swaps.
Hedging using futures contracts requires caution. For instance, a company that buys futures contracts to hedge against rising commodity prices could find themselves at a significant competitive disadvantage if the actual market price falls substantially by delivery time.
Investment fund managers can leverage financial asset futures to manage portfolio interest rate risk (duration) without directly buying or selling bonds. This can be done at both the portfolio and fund sponsor level, using instruments like bond futures. Investment firms that receive capital calls or inflows denominated in a currency different from their base currency can make use of currency futures to hedge against future currency exchange rate risks associated with these inflows.
Speculators
There are three main groups of speculators: position traders, day traders, and swing traders – though there are also many hybrid trading styles. In recent years, with a surge in investor participation in trading futures, a debate has emerged regarding the potential impact of speculators on commodity price volatility, particularly for resources like oil. Experts remain divided on this issue.
An example that demonstrates both hedging and speculation involves mutual funds or separately managed accounts that aim to track the performance of a stock index, such as the S&P 500.
To efficiently manage unintended cash holdings or inflows, the portfolio manager might invest in S&P 500 stock index futures contracts. By entering into long futures positions (buying contracts), the portfolio gains exposure to the index, aligning with the fund’s investment objective while avoiding the immediate need to purchase individual stocks within the index. It also helps maintain a well-diversified portfolio, ensures a higher percentage of assets are invested in the market and minimises tracking error in the performance of the fund. Once it becomes economically feasible to purchase individual stocks within the index in appropriate proportions, the portfolio manager can close the futures contracts and invest directly in each individual stock.
The primary societal benefit of futures markets is considered to be the efficient transfer of risk. This allows market participants with different risk tolerances and investment horizons to engage in transactions; for instance, a hedger can transfer risk to a speculator.
Options on Futures
Options on futures contacts, often simply referred to as “futures options”, give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call) or sell (put) a futures contract at a predetermined price, known as the strike price, by a specific expiry date. The strike price dictates the futures price at which the underlying contract trades if the option is exercised.
The pricing of futures options and options on traded assets often follows a similar approach, with an extension of the Black-Scholes formula known as the Black model being commonly used.
Futures option premiums are not settled until the position is unwound. Due to this unique settlement feature, these positions are often referred to as “futions”, as they behave like options but settle like futures contracts. Investors can participate in futures options markets as either the option buyer or the option seller (writer).
Option sellers are generally considered to assume greater risk. If the option buyer exercises their right to the underlying futures contract as specified in the option, the option seller is contractually obligated to take the opposite futures position.
Option prices are determined by market forces of supply and demand, with the option premium representing the price paid to the option seller for assuming the associated risk. While futures contracts typically expire quarterly or monthly, options on futures contracts generally have more frequent expiry dates, often daily.
Examples of futures options include those based on underlying assets like gold (XAU), stock market indexes (Nasdaq, S&P 500), and commodities (oil, VIX). Stock exchanges and their clearing houses, such as CME, COMEX, and NYMEX, often provide overviews of these products for investors.
Futures Contract Regulations
In the US, all futures market transactions are overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), an independent government agency. The CFTC is tasked with maintaining order and integrity within the futures markets, and is empowered to impose fines and other penalties on individuals or companies that violate established regulations.
While the CFTC holds ultimate regulatory authority by law, individual futures exchanges also have the ability to establish their own rules. Under exchange contracts, companies can be fined for infractions that may differ from, or supplement, those imposed by the CFTC.
The CFTC publishes weekly reports detailing the open interest for each market segment with at least 20 participants. These “Commitments of Traders Reports” (COT Reports, or COTRs) are released every Friday and include data from the preceding Tuesday. The reports provide a breakdown of open interest split into reportable and non-reportable open interest as well as commercial and non-commercial open interest.
Futures versus forwards
Forward contracts share similarities with futures contracts in that both specify the exchange of an asset at a predetermined price on a future date. However, unlike futures contracts, forwards are not traded on a centralised exchange, but rather over-the-counter. This means futures are standardised, whereas forwards are customised, traded over the counter or simply being agreed upon directly between two counterparties. When physical delivery is required, the forward contract states who will receive the deliverable asset. In contrast, for futures contracts, the clearing house, acting as an intermediary, selects the counterparty for delivery based on exchange rules.
Additionally, futures contracts are margined, but forwards aren’t, meaning futures have much less credit risk. Forwards are also generally unregulated, whereas futures trading is subject to regulations imposed by central government agencies.
Comparison Table:
Forward contracts share similarities with futures contracts in that both specify the exchange of an asset at a predetermined price on a future date. However
Feature | Futures Contracts | Forward Contracts |
Trading Venue | Traded on a centralised exchange | Over-the-counter (not on a centralised exchange) |
Standardisation | Standardised contracts | Customised contracts |
Counterparty Selection | Selected by the clearing house based on exchange rules | Specified in the contract |
Credit Risk | Lower due to daily margining | Higher due to lack of margining |
Regulation | Subject to regulations by central government agencies | Generally unregulated |
Exchange for Related Position
The CFTC has cracked down on brokers who have facilitated trades that involve exchanging a futures contract for an unregulated over-the-counter physical commodity or cash asset position. These positions must meet specific requirements, including minimum size and a clear link to the underlying commodity risk.
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